Industrial production in November increased by 5.4 percent y/y and compared to the previous month it fell by 1.6 percent, reported the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes expected an increase in production in November by 3.3 percent y/y, and a decrease of 3.6 percent on a monthly basis.

Seasonally adjusted industrial production in November increased by 3.5 percent y/y, 1.2 percent m/m.

Production continues its rally after the weakening in the second quarter of 2020, ING analysts estimate.

"In our opinion, the scale of the slowdown in the Polish economy in the fourth quarter due to the second wave of Covid-19 will be much shallower than in the second quarter," ING analysts wrote.

According to Pekao senior economist Adam Antoniak, the prospects for the industrial sector are favorable.

"Although the coming weeks will be marked by epidemic restrictions in many countries, this will affect the industry to a limited extent, and in the future, we have mass vaccination against Covid-19. This means that the impact of pandemic restrictions on demand will be temporary, and the vigorous activity is to be expected in the medium term,” he assessed.

The main source of production growth was the increased activity in departments with a high share of exports in revenues. PMI data for the eurozone signal the maintenance of a clear increase in Polish exports and industrial production in December this year, Jakub Borowski from Credit Agricole noticed in turn. 

(PAP1, PAP2, PAP3, PAP4)